Premier League VAR Trends bettors should watch in 2025/26
Premier League VAR Trends influence match outcomes through penalties, red cards and overturned goals. These incidents directly affect goal totals, card markets and player props. The system has gradually intervened less often. Referees now apply the “clear and obvious error” threshold more strictly, which reduced decision reversals in recent seasons.
VAR decision changes in recent seasons
The Premier League publishes yearly data on decisions overturned by VAR.
VAR interventions by season
| Season | Matches | Decisions changed |
| 2021/22 | 380 | 132 |
| 2022/23 | 380 | 120 |
| 2023/24 | 380 | 105 |
| 2024/25 | 380 | 98 |
VAR corrections still occur roughly once every four matches, enough to influence results and betting markets.
Penalties remain the biggest VAR factor
Penalty decisions affect totals and match results more than any other VAR intervention.
Premier League penalties by season
| Season | Penalties awarded | Penalties scored |
| 2021/22 | 103 | 79 |
| 2022/23 | 109 | 83 |
| 2023/24 | 106 | 84 |
| 2024/25 | 96 | 74 |
Despite a slight decline in 2024/25, penalties remain a consistent scoring source.
Teams most affected by VAR decisions
Arsenal
Arsenal generate frequent penalty checks because of sustained attacking pressure and high box-touch volume. Set pieces also increase handball and foul reviews. Their defensive structure limits VAR checks at the other end.
Manchester United
United matches produce frequent VAR incidents due to open play and transition attacks. Bruno Fernandes takes penalties and often draws fouls around the box, increasing review situations.
Manchester City
City record some of the league’s highest expected goals numbers. Constant penalty-area pressure leads to handball reviews and foul checks. Erling Haaland’s movement inside the box forces defenders into risky challenges.
Newcastle United
Newcastle’s physical defensive style produces more penalty-area tackles and aerial duels. Crosses and set pieces often trigger VAR handball or foul checks.
Why VAR matters more late in the season
April fixtures often feature:
- tighter matches in title and relegation races
- aggressive defending under pressure
- more penalty-area contact.
These conditions increase VAR review frequency.
Betting markets influenced by VAR
VAR most strongly affects:
- penalty awarded markets
- goal totals
- player card bets.
Teams with frequent penalty-area activity create more VAR-driven outcomes.
FAQ: Premier League VAR Trends
VAR was introduced in the 2019/20 season.
Goals, penalties, straight red cards and mistaken identity.
Recent seasons show roughly 100 interventions per season.
Teams attacking frequently inside the box such as Arsenal and Manchester City.
Penalties and red cards strongly affect match outcomes and goal totals.
Betting by League
Football betting varies by league. Tempo, tactics, and motivation differ significantly across competitions.
You can also explore all football-related markets in our main Football Betting section.
Last updated: March 13, 2026 | Expert Reviewed by Felipe Morgante, Gaming Industry Analyst
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